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In the first half of 2019 evanescent, domestic Guangxi plywood manufacturers melamine market a change in the first half of the depressed state, prices began to rise, why? Mainly because the yard maintenance equipment more, the cycle is generally longer, resulting in a shortage of goods for a time, factory shipments without pressure, offer positive adjustment. So can this rally be sustained? Take a look at my analysis:
At present, the average operating rate of domestic melamine industry is about 46.94% , the average daily output of 2780 tons, a significant reduction over the previous period. Later, most of the overhaul equipment scheduled to resume production in late May, the operating rate will be gradually raised to a higher level, adequate supply of goods, the market support will gradually weaken. The operation of the specific device is as follows:
On the demand side, traditional consumption runs through the whole market during the off-season, and the demand is difficult to improve obviously. Some plate factories in the north maintain only about 40 percent of their production because of fewer orders. It is difficult to put a volume on the demand for raw materials, while the south is in the rainy season, to a certain extent limit the level of downstream start-up. Later with the arrival of gold nine silver ten, the lower reaches will be improved, consumption will then increase, the market trading atmosphere is expected to improve. In addition, in the second half of the year, there is still a large amount of demand in foreign markets, foreign trade orders will be followed up in an appropriate amount, the export situation will also be improved, and will also have a mitigating effect on the fierce competition environment at home.
Raw Material Urea, India bidding on the market to play a stabilizing role, although not much good, but will not turn bad. If the price is accepted, do not scrap the bid, there will be 300-400,000 tons of domestic exports, and the last few days have been Inner Mongolia supply is shipped to the port. In addition, some urea plant scheduled maintenance in July, the supply side of the good effect. The domestic urea output is reduced, the export volume is expected to pick up, the urea market is still likely to maintain a medium-high level of operation, with the end of agricultural demand, industrial demand has not yet reached the centralized procurement period, the possibility of a rational decline in domestic urea prices increased.
On the whole, because the price of melamine was on the low side for a long time in the first half of the year, the profit space of the factory was severely compressed, and the manufacturers had a strong intention to support the price, but before the downstream demand did not materially improve, the factory simply transferred the inventory to the traders, and after the downstream centralized purchase, there was no demand for replenishment for a short period of time. As the inspection and repair facilities gradually restarted, the on-site supply pattern became more and more relaxed, the market will once again enter a vicious circle of imbalance between production and sales, and gains will be limited. The later stage still needs to pay attention to plant operation and demand recovery.